Cryptocurrency and gambling are, in many ways, a great partnership. But, when self-styled crypto experts try and build gambling strategies into their crypto dealings, and then pass it on to others, it’s time to be wary. One such video is posted by an individual calling himself Bitcoin Fund Manager, who promotes the risk management strategy adopted by his friend ‘Gavin’, which he tries to equate to Bitcoin leverage trading. Leaving aside some of the claims made about this individual’s business practices, we look at the strategy that he claims makes his friend a fortune every time he visits Vegas. We recommend you watch the video first and see if you can spot any errors yourself.

Tripling Down

According to the video, ‘Gavin’ goes to the roulette table with the intention of only betting on a single number, which gives him roughly 3% chance of winning, yet by the end of his play he apparently often takes home around 35x his bet. How does he achieve this? He triples down on his bet every time he loses until he wins. As an example, Gavin starts with $100, loses, then bets $300, loses, then bets $900, and so on until he wins. Then he walks away. If he wins on his first bet, he also steps away. Simple. Right?

Martingale Gone Wrong

The strategy Gavin uses is an extreme version of the Martingale. In the real Martingale strategy you only double down, not triple down. The goal of Martingale is to recoup your losses, so you break even and win a little. An example is shown here:

• Bet $100 – lose
• Bet $200 – lose
• Bet $400 – win

Overall, you bet $700. By the time you won with your $400, you take home $800, and you profit $100. In the video, Gavin is betting on a straight bet, which is not where you should use the Martingale strategy – the Martingale is best used for even bets only. Only a fool would double or triple down on a straight bet every time he loses. Your chances of landing that ball on a straight bet in European roulette is 2.7%. Tripling your bet over and over again and getting only 2.7% chance every single time is simply madness.

Casino Betting Limits

Gavin’s strategy of tripling down on losses apparently wins him 5-8x his money on each visit to the Vegas roulette tables, all because his final win is an epic one. This is despite every roulette table in the world having betting limits in place that would restrict Gavin from tripling down on his losses to around five consecutive bets. Say the roulette wheel has a limit of $35, Gavin would bet this way:

• Bet $1 – lose
• Bet $3 – lose
• Bet $9 – lose
• Bet $27 – lose

By bet four, Gavin has exceeded the table limit, so he has to walk away with the loss. He can’t simply keep going until he wins. Even if he could, applying this principle to any aspect of life is incredibly dangerous, especially with Bitcoin leverage trading where you can leverage up to 100x the amount.

Stick to What You (Might Not) Know

Whether Gavin actually exists is a moot point – the principle of doubling or tripling down until you win is irresponsible and, at reputable casinos, impossible. We would suggest that Bitcoin Fund Manager stick to crypto and not advise gamblers on strategies that could financially ruin them. That is if he does know about crypto after all…