The concept of beginner’s luck has been around for as long as gambling – or gaming – has existed. There’s nothing more frustrating to an experienced player of a certain game who’s on a losing streak than to see a complete amateur come along and scoop up the jackpot. Are these just cases of pure luck, or is there more to it? Keep reading to discover the answer!

The Sparrow Theory

Several students at a university in Israel wanted to test what really happens to a beginner who wins at gambling, seeking to test the theory of beginner’s luck. The divided a large area of land into two sides, one of which had many holes filled with little pellets of food. The other side had fewer holes, but they were deep enough to contain more pellets. The few-holes side was considered a high-risk side, and the many-holes side was considered a low risk-side.

The team brought out thirty sparrows, which they then released into the holed areas. What they observed at first were seemingly random hole choices by the sparrows, but they soon moved to the low-risk area where there were many visible holes of food. By the end of the experiment, only seven sparrows were left on the high-risk side.

The seven sparrows are our beginners. Their decisions are not consciously made – they did not know that the few holes had more food on them. Professional gamblers nearly always take the low-risk side where there are more chances of winning, but the prizes are smaller. This theory suggests that beginners don’t knowingly take the high-risk options, but they do it more often than professional gamblers and therefore tend to win bigger.

The Flow Theory

Flow Theory suggests that individuals whose chief emotion is the enjoyment of the game they are playing, such as beginners, are more likely to win primarily because they don’t take strategies and plans into account, they just go with the flow. In contrast, professional gamblers are always considering their next move, counting cards, checking out opponents, and a dozen other things that factor into their decision making. These considerations are supposed to increase their fortunes, but sometimes they can lead to the player pulling out of a move that a less experienced player might make because it ‘feels’ right.

This theory works only if the game rules and difficulty level match the gambler’s skill level. You will notice that new blackjack players win quite often because they only know the basic rules – they don’t know about card counting, and they certainly have no bias for or against other rules like standing on 17 or hitting at 14. A professional gambler on the other hand has more to think about and therefore more things to influence his decision-making.

Why not test the theory of beginner’s luck on a game you’ve never played before?